Padres MVP Candidates 2025: Who Deserves It? | Padres Pulse
The San Diego Padres have a roster brimming with star power, but when the 2025 season rolls around, the MVP conversation will inevitably narrow to a few key names. While Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are the usual suspects, the rise of young talent and the addition of impact arms could shift the narrative. In this article, we break down the top Padres MVP candidates 2025, weighing their cases based on past performance, projections, and team context. Whether you're a die-hard fan or a fantasy baseball enthusiast, here's who to watch.
Fernando Tatis Jr.: The Dynamic Frontrunner
When healthy, Fernando Tatis Jr. is a walking highlight reel and a legitimate MVP threat. After a couple of injury-plagued seasons, Tatis showed flashes of his old self in 2024, combining elite exit velocities with improved plate discipline. For 2025, the key is simple: stay on the field. If he plays 140+ games, his blend of power (30+ HR), speed (25+ SB), and defense in right field makes him a top-five MVP candidate in the National League. The Padres' success will likely hinge on his production, and voters love a narrative—Tatis reclaiming his status as one of baseball's best would be irresistible. Among the Padres MVP candidates 2025, he has the highest ceiling.
Manny Machado: The Steady Veteran Presence
Manny Machado has been the Padres' most consistent performer since arriving in 2019. He finished second in MVP voting in 2022 and remains the clubhouse leader. At 32, he's no longer a threat to steal 20 bases, but his power and run production are still elite. In 2024, he battled elbow issues but still managed 29 home runs. With a full offseason to recover, Machado could post a .280/.350/.500 line with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI. The knock? Voters may favor younger, flashier candidates. However, if the Padres win the division and Machado is the anchor, he'll get plenty of votes. He's a safe bet among Padres MVP candidates 2025.
Jackson Merrill: The Rising Star
Jackson Merrill burst onto the scene in 2024, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. His smooth left-handed swing and plus defense in center field drew comparisons to a young Steve Finley. In 2025, Merrill could take another leap. If he adds more power—say, 20-25 home runs—while maintaining a .290 average, he'll force his way into the MVP discussion. The Padres are high on him, and his youth (he turns 22 in April) makes him an intriguing long shot. Don't be surprised if he's the breakout star among Padres MVP candidates 2025.
Dylan Cease: The Pitching Dark Horse
While position players usually dominate MVP voting, a pitcher can crash the party with a dominant season. Dylan Cease, acquired from the White Sox in 2024, showed why he's one of the best strikeout artists in baseball. He posted a 3.47 ERA and 224 strikeouts in his first year with San Diego. If Cease can lower his walk rate and pitch deeper into games, he could challenge for the Cy Young—and maybe even MVP. The last pitcher to win NL MVP was Clayton Kershaw in 2014, so it's a long shot. But if Cease throws 200 innings with a sub-2.50 ERA, he'll get mentions. Keep an eye on him as a dark horse among Padres MVP candidates 2025.
Other Names to Watch
Beyond the top four, a few other Padres could sneak into the MVP conversation with career years. Xander Bogaerts, now at second base, could rebound offensively and provide steady production. Ha-Seong Kim, if he re-signs, offers elite defense and on-base skills, though his power limits his MVP ceiling. Luis Arraez is a batting title machine, but his lack of power and speed caps his MVP appeal. Finally, Yu Darvish, at 38, is ageless, but he'd need a historic season to win MVP. Realistically, the award will go to one of the top four, but baseball is full of surprises.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the most likely Padres MVP candidate for 2025?
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the most likely. If he stays healthy, his five-tool skill set gives him the highest ceiling of any Padre. He's a former MVP runner-up and has the star power to sway voters.
Can Manny Machado win MVP in 2025?
Absolutely. Machado has finished in the top five in MVP voting three times, including a second-place finish in 2022. If he stays healthy and the Padres win the NL West, he'll be a strong candidate.
Is Jackson Merrill a realistic MVP candidate?
It's a long shot, but not impossible. Merrill would need to build on his impressive rookie season and post elite numbers across the board. Voters love young breakout stars, so if he takes a giant leap, he could enter the conversation.
Has a Padres player ever won MVP?
Yes, Ken Caminiti won NL MVP in 1996. More recently, Fernando Tatis Jr. finished third in 2021, and Manny Machado was second in 2022. The franchise has a rich history of MVP contenders.