Joe Musgrove Injury Update | Padres Pulse
Joe Musgrove will not pitch again in 2024. The Padres right-hander underwent season-ending surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow, the team announced. The procedure, performed by Dr. Keith Meister in Dallas, typically requires 12 to 14 months of recovery. That puts Musgrove's return sometime around mid-to-late 2025, though the exact timeline depends on how his rehab progresses. For now, San Diego must move forward without one of its most reliable starters.
What Exactly Happened to Joe Musgrove?
Musgrove had been dealing with elbow inflammation since late May. He tried to pitch through it, making a few starts in June and July, but the discomfort never fully went away. After a bullpen session in early August, he felt a sharp pain and was shut down. An MRI revealed a partial tear of the UCL. Given his history—he had Tommy John surgery in 2017—the decision was made to go with a full repair rather than risk further damage.
The surgery was not a traditional Tommy John. Dr. Meister performed a UCL repair with an internal brace, a newer procedure that can speed up recovery for some pitchers. But because Musgrove had previous Tommy John, the repair was more complex. The team has not set a specific return date, but the general expectation is that he will miss the rest of 2024 and a good chunk of 2025.
How Long Will Joe Musgrove Be Out?
The standard recovery for a UCL repair with internal brace is 10 to 12 months. However, Musgrove's case is different because of his prior Tommy John. That previous surgery means the ligament was already reconstructed once, and the repair this time had to account for scar tissue and altered anatomy.
Dr. Meister has said that Musgrove's timeline is closer to 12 to 14 months. If that holds, he could return around August or September of 2025. The Padres are not counting on him for the first half of next season. They will likely treat any contribution from Musgrove in 2025 as a bonus rather than a given.
Musgrove himself has been optimistic. In a statement after the surgery, he said he plans to attack rehab the same way he always has and that he expects to be back on the mound. But he also acknowledged that this is a long road.
What This Means for the Padres Rotation
Losing Musgrove is a significant blow. He had been the team's most consistent starter over the past three seasons, posting a 3.05 ERA in 2022 and a 3.05 ERA again in 2023. He was also a clubhouse leader and a fan favorite, known for his intensity and his no-hitter in 2021.
Without him, the Padres will lean heavily on Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, and Michael King. Darvish has been excellent when healthy, but he is 38 and has had his own injury issues. Cease and King have been durable, but the back end of the rotation is now a question mark. The team could turn to prospects like Adam Mazur or Robby Snelling, or they could look for help via trade or free agency this winter.
General manager A.J. Preller has said the team will explore all options. But he also expressed confidence in the internal candidates. The Padres have a strong farm system, and they may prefer to give young pitchers a chance rather than overpay for a veteran arm.
Musgrove's Contract and Future with San Diego
Musgrove is in the second year of a five-year, $100 million extension he signed in 2023. He is owed $20 million in 2025 and $20 million in 2026, with a $20 million club option for 2027. The Padres are on the hook for that money regardless of whether he pitches.
That contract could become a burden if Musgrove does not return to form. But the Padres knew the risks when they signed him. Musgrove has had a history of arm issues, and the team was aware that another injury was possible. They bet on his talent and his makeup, and that bet has not paid off yet.
If Musgrove does return in 2025 and pitches well, he could still be a valuable part of the rotation. If he struggles or suffers another setback, the Padres may have to consider a buyout or a trade. But that is a problem for later. For now, the focus is on his rehab.
What's Next in Joe Musgrove's Rehab?
Musgrove will spend the next few weeks in a splint and will not be allowed to throw. He will begin physical therapy almost immediately, focusing on range of motion and strengthening the muscles around the elbow. Around the three-month mark, he should be able to start a light tossing program. By six months, he could be throwing off a mound. But the real test comes when he starts facing hitters again, usually around the 10-to-12-month mark.
The Padres will monitor him closely. They have one of the best medical staffs in baseball, led by head athletic trainer Mark Rogow. They will not rush him. Musgrove has said he wants to be back as soon as possible, but he also knows that coming back too soon could lead to another injury. The team will likely take a conservative approach.
Fans should not expect to see Musgrove in a game until at least the second half of 2025. Even then, he may need a rehab assignment in the minors. The Padres will make sure he is fully ready before they activate him.
Frequently asked questions
When will Joe Musgrove return to the Padres?
The most likely timeline is 12 to 14 months after his surgery, which took place in August 2024. That puts his return around August or September 2025. However, the Padres have not set a firm date, and his progress will determine when he is ready.
What kind of surgery did Joe Musgrove have?
He had a UCL repair with an internal brace, not a full Tommy John reconstruction. The procedure was performed by Dr. Keith Meister. Because Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in 2017, the repair was more complex and his recovery may take longer than a typical internal brace procedure.
Will Joe Musgrove pitch again in 2024?
No. The surgery was season-ending. He will miss the remainder of the 2024 season and will not be on the Padres' playoff roster if they make the postseason.
How does Musgrove's injury affect the Padres' playoff chances?
It hurts their depth, but the Padres still have a strong top of the rotation with Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, and Michael King. They will need those pitchers to stay healthy and for someone else to step up. The offense will also need to carry more of the load.
Is Joe Musgrove's contract insured?
Most large contracts in MLB are insured, but the details are not public. The Padres will likely recoup some of his salary through insurance, but the exact amount is unknown. The team has not commented on the insurance status.